Based on the latest charts shared by analyst Cryptollica (@Cryptollica), Dogecoin is at a turning point, where a weak market structure intersects with abnormally compressed on-chain risks. These charts juxtapose years of DOGE/USDT price channels with Alphafractal's reserve risk framework, raising questions about whether the current trend is truly a collapse or the formation of a long-term bottom.
狗狗币链上风险触及极端价值区在 X邮政Cryptollica解释说，狗狗币模型“将储备风险与VOCDD/MVOCDD式的活动指标相结合，以评估长期持有者的信念与市场定价之间的关系。”关键指标是储备风险本身，其定义为：“储备风险 = 价格 / HODL Bank（持有银行）”。
“HODL Bank”代表长期持有者因未在之前的上涨行情中卖出而承担的累计机会成本。当当前价格相对于该“HODL Bank”较低时，“储备风险”数值也较低；当价格相对于该“HODL Bank”较高时，“储备风险”数值则会飙升。
